17 Jan

2024 NBA picks, January 16 predictions from proven model

We’ve got another exciting Pacific Division matchup on Tuesday’s NBA schedule as the Phoenix Suns will host the Sacramento Kings. Phoenix is 21-18 overall and 11-11 at home, while Sacramento is 23-16 overall and 10-9 on the road. The Kings have won four straight meetings between the two, including a pair of victories in Dec. 2023. Sacramento is 21-18 against the spread in the 2023-24 NBA season, while the Suns are 14-24-1 ATS.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET at the Footprint Center in Phoenix. The Suns are favored by 4 points in the latest Kings vs. Suns odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 243.5 points. Before entering any Suns vs. Kings picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 42-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Sacramento vs. Phoenix. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Kings vs. Suns:

Suns vs. Kings spread: Suns -4
Suns vs. Kings over/under: 243.5 points
Suns vs. Kings money line: Suns: -179, Kings: +149
Suns vs. Kings picks: See picks at SportsLine
What you need to know about the Suns
Winning is just a little bit easier when your shooting is a whole 15.6% better than the opposition, a fact the Suns proved on Sunday. They came out on top against the Portland Trail Blazers by a score of 127-116. It was another big night for Devin Booker, who scored 34 points to go along with seven assists and six rebounds, while Bradley Beal had 23 points.

Beal now has 60 points over his last two games, shooting a blistering 12 for 16 (75%) from beyond the arc. Though he’s missed lots of time and has played in just 15 games, Beal has career highs in both field goal percentage (51.2%) and 3-point percentage (42.4%) this season. However, the trio of Beal, Booker and Kevin Durant has vastly underperformed relative to expectations when they’ve shared the court together, as Phoenix is just 1-7 against the spread when all three are in the starting lineup. See which team to pick here.

What you need to know about the Kings
Meanwhile, the Kings fought the good fight in their overtime matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday but wound up with a less-than-desirable result. They lost 143-142 on a last-minute jump shot From Damian Lillard. The Kings have struggled against the Bucks recently, as their match on Sunday was their 11th consecutive lost matchup. Even though the team lost, it still had its share of impressive performances as Domantas Sabonis dropped a triple-double on 21 points, 13 rebounds, and 15 assists, while Kevin Huerter had 26 points and 10 rebounds.

Sacramento has yet to find the offensive rhythm that powered the league’s highest-scoring offense last season with the best offensive rating. The Kings rank just eighth in points and 14th in offensive rating this year, and a big reason for the dropoff is the team’s struggles from the charity stripe. Sacramento ranks last in the NBA with a 73.3% clip from the free throw line as its top two scorers in De’Aaron Fox and Sabonis are combining to shoot just 70% from the line. Keegan Murray (hip) is questionable for Tuesday. See which team to pick here.

Key Betting Info
Booker will likely loom large in the final result, win or lose. For the season, he has averaged 26.6 points and 7.7 assists.

The Suns have struggled as the favorite so far this season and are currently 11-17-1 when expecting a win. Meanwhile, the Kings are 7-4 as underdogs.

Some of the betting trends to consider are:

The Suns are 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games vs teams that win more than 55 percent of games.
The Kings are 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 games as the road underdog.
The Suns are 7-15 against the spread in their last 22 games when at home.
How to make Suns vs. Kings picks
The model has simulated Kings vs. Suns 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

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